futuramb: The Graph That Proves Economic Forecasters Are Almost Always Wrong - Derek Thompson - Business - The Atlantic There are a few lessons to glean from the Surprise Index, which I was only made aware of this week. First, predictions are often reported as news. They’re not. They’re predictions, and they’re almost always wrong. Full disclosure: I’ve been as guilty as anyone for breathlessly passing along predictions without the qualifying them as conjecture. Second, to be fair to the analysts, sometimes the first draft of the economic figures aren’t any better than the predictions. A great example: We initially estimated GDP falling 3.8% in the last three months of 2008. Instead, it fell nearly 9%. That’s a horrible miscalculation that had a real impact on decisions made by Congress and the Federal Reserve to fix the economy. I wonder what the Economic Surprise Index would say about first readings of GDP and unemployment numbers.
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futuramb:

The Graph That Proves Economic Forecasters Are Almost Always Wrong - Derek Thompson - Business - The Atlantic

There are a few lessons to glean from the Surprise Index, which I was only made aware of this week. First, predictions are often reported as news. They’re not. They’re predictions, and they’re almost always wrong. Full disclosure: I’ve been as guilty as anyone for breathlessly passing along predictions without the qualifying them as conjecture. Second, to be fair to the analysts, sometimes the first draft of the economic figures aren’t any better than the predictions. A great example: We initially estimated GDP falling 3.8% in the last three months of 2008. Instead, it fell nearly 9%. That’s a horrible miscalculation that had a real impact on decisions made by Congress and the Federal Reserve to fix the economy. I wonder what the Economic Surprise Index would say about first readings of GDP and unemployment numbers.

(via emergentfutures)

Source: The Atlantic

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  1. rotlew reblogged this from emergentfutures
  2. bouncebox reblogged this from moneyisnotimportant and added:
    You can’t really tell allot from one graph but it’s good stuff this. moneyisnotimportant:
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    The Graph That Proves...Forecasters Are Almost Always Wrong - Derek Thompson - Business -...
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  18. belua reblogged this from emergentfutures and added:
    Predictions always spook society. The second people hear that there MIGHT be some economic struggle, they run with it....
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    Economic forecasting and astrology go hand in hand.
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